Ravens vs Chiefs – Week 1 2024
BAL
KC
BAL
AWAY
20@27
KC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 20, Kansas City Chiefs 27.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: BAL 59%Our line: BAL -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
42%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
| SOURCE | BAL | KC | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 | 42.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
50.0% (2)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but KC won. Projected margin was 2.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs KC
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.9. The market has BAL at +3.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, BAL 20, KC 27. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, BAL 20, KC 37 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against KC +0.059.
