2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ KC – Week 1 2024
BAL
KC
BAL
AWAY
20@27
KC +7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 59%Projected margin: 0.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but KC won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 6.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
| KC@BALW3 2020 | KC 34, BAL 20 | BAL | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES