TEN @ CHI – Week 1 2024
TEN
CHI
TEN
AWAY
17@24
CHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 65%Our line: CHI -5.4
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-190
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.146Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.082
+0.030Defense EPA / play+0.006
39.9%Offense success %39.9%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 5.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 |
| Our fair price | +190 | -190 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7 SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2 SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
W.Levis2091 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1079 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears312 yd · 4 TD
W.Levis183 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Ridley64 rec · 1017 yd · 4 TD
N.Westbrook-Ikhine32 rec · 497 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TENW9 2020 | CHI 17, TEN 24 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.4. The market has CHI at -4.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, CHI 17, TEN 24 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: TEN -0.146 against CHI -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
