Titans vs Bears – Week 1 2024
TEN
CHI
TEN
AWAY
17@24
CHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 17, Chicago Bears 24.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 65%Our line: CHI -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SOURCE | TEN | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 | 64.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.146Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
39.9% (29)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 5.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TENW9 2020 | CHI 17, TEN 24 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.4. The market has CHI at -4.0.
Chicago Bears won, TEN 17, CHI 24. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -4.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, CHI 17, TEN 24 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: TEN -0.146 against CHI -0.088.
