Vikings vs Giants – Week 1 2024
MIN
NYG
MIN
AWAY
28@6
MIN BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 28, New York Giants 6.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: NYG 50%Our line: NYG +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
NYG · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
49%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SOURCE | MIN | NYG | NYG WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 | 48.9% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
45.6% (12)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 22.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NYGW16 2025 | MIN 16, NYG 13 | MIN | W |
| NYG@MINW16 2022 | NYG 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.0. The market has NYG at +1.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 28, NYG 6. Our model had favored New York Giants at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Giants at +1.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 1.0 points.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 16, NYG 13 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against NYG -0.170.
