MIN @ NYG – Week 1 2024
MIN
NYG
MIN
AWAY
28@6
MIN BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 50%Our line: NYG +0.0
NYG
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.107
-0.086Defense EPA / play+0.063
45.6%Offense success %40.5%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 22.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
49%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0 SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
S.Darnold4319 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
A.Jones1138 yd · 5 TD
C.Akers297 yd · 1 TD
S.Darnold212 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson103 rec · 1533 yd · 10 TD
J.Addison63 rec · 875 yd · 9 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NYGW16 2025 | MIN 16, NYG 13 | MIN | W |
| NYG@MINW16 2022 | NYG 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.0. The market has NYG at +1.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 16, NYG 13 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
