Cowboys vs Browns – Week 1 2024
DAL
CLE
DAL
AWAY
33@17
DAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 33, Cleveland Browns 17.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: DAL 65%Our line: DAL -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
46%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
| SOURCE | DAL | CLE | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +110 | -130 | 45.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
40.6% (23)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 16. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DALW4 2020 | CLE 49, DAL 38 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CLE
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.0. The market has DAL at +2.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 33, CLE 17. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +2.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 49, DAL 38 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.192 against CLE -0.201.
