DAL @ CLE – Week 1 2024
DAL
CLE
DAL
AWAY
33@17
DAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 65%Our line: DAL -5.0
DAL
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-182
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.109Offense EPA / play-0.183
+0.083Defense EPA / play+0.017
40.6%Offense success %37.0%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 16. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +110 | -130 |
| Our fair price | -182 | +182 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8 SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott1978 yd · 11 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1079 yd · 2 TD
E.Elliott226 yd · 3 TD
K.Turpin92 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Lamb101 rec · 1194 yd · 6 TD
J.Tolbert49 rec · 610 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DALW4 2020 | CLE 49, DAL 38 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.0. The market has DAL at +2.5.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 49, DAL 38 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.192 against CLE -0.201.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
