2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ CLE – Week 1 2024
DAL
CLE
DAL
AWAY
33@17
DAL +16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 65%Projected margin: -1.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 16. Off by 14.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +110 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0SEASON PPR
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DALW4 2020 | CLE 49, DAL 38 | CLE | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES