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2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

ARI

BUF

ARI

AWAY

28@34

BUF +6

FINAL · WEEK 1

2024 SEASON

BUF

HOME

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THE PICK FOR THIS GAME IS LOCKED

Our team, side, tier, confidence and projected margin for ARI @ BUF are part of NoPunt Pro. One free Pick of the Week is open to everyone — the rest unlock with Pro.

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TEAM COMPARISON

ARI	METRIC	BUF
+0.011	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.181
+0.067	OFF EPA/PLAY	+0.190
+0.056	DEF EPA/PLAY	+0.009
400	POINTS FOR	612
379	POINTS AGAINST	432
55.5%	PASS RATE	51.8%
76.2%	RED ZONE TD%	95.5%
17.5%	4TH DOWN GO%	24.6%

ARIANALYTICS →BUFANALYTICS →

BETTING LINE

FIELD	VALUE		NOTES
SPREAD	+6.5		Market line
LIVE ML	—		Last observed market ML

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

ARI

divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)

BUF

road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

61°F

WIND

20 MPH

WINDY

WIN PROBABILITY

KEY PLAYERS

ARI

K.Murray

QB

297.2PPR

J.Conner

RB

253.8PPR

T.McBride

TE

243.8PPR

BUF

J.Allen

QB

372.3PPR

J.Cook

RB

266.7PPR

K.Shakir

WR

182.5PPR

INJURY REPORTWEEK 1

ARI3 LISTED

Xavier Weaver

WR · Oblique

OUT

Joey Blount

S · Back

QUESTIONABLE

Tip Reiman

TE · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

BUF2 LISTED

Javon Solomon

DE · Oblique

OUT

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS

GAME	SCORE
BUF@ARIW10 2020	BUF 30, ARI 32

FULL COMPARISON →

ARI ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

BUF ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

COMPARE

WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES

NE@CIN

16-10

WAS@TB

20-37

NYJ@SF

19-32

TEN@CHI

17-24

GB@PHI

29-34

DAL@CLE

33-17

DEN@SEA

← WEEK 1 PICKS FULL RESULTS LEDGER →

HOME TEAM WIN PROBABILITY OVER GAME TIME · SOURCE: NFLFASTR

Dawuane Smoot

DE · Toe

QUESTIONABLE

ARI SCHEME RATES

17 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

31.4%

BLITZ RATE

25.6%

MOTION

28.8%

RPO

1.1%

SCREEN

8.3%

NO HUDDLE

8.6%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.1

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2024 SEASON

NEXT GEN STATS

EXP COMP %

74.0%

Josh AllenBUF

TIME TO THROW

2.65s

Josh AllenBUF

SEPARATION

3.0 yds

Greg DortchARI

RUSH EFFICIENCY

4.5

James CookBUF

AGGRESSIVENESS

17.4%

Josh AllenBUF

AVG YAC

3.6 yds

Greg DortchARI

GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE

SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS

BUF SCHEME RATES

20 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

22.4%

BLITZ RATE

28.2%

MOTION

41.8%

RPO

4.7%

SCREEN

12.6%

NO HUDDLE

6.2%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.3

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2024 SEASON

ARI ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

11.2%

DROP %

3.4%

PRESSURE %

14.2%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

3.5

YAC/ATT

2.3

BROKEN TACKLES

33

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

76.3%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

92.0

MISSED TACKLE %

11.0%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2024 SEASON

BUF ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

16.3%

DROP %

3.6%

PRESSURE %

13.6%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

2.2

YAC/ATT

1.8

BROKEN TACKLES

39

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

69.7%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

88.1

MISSED TACKLE %

9.5%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2024 SEASON

ARI @ BUF – Week 1 2024