ARI @ BUF – Week 1 2024
ARI
BUF
ARI
AWAY
28@34
BUF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 75%Our line: BUF -9.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.0
OUR LINE
-296
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.197
+0.067Offense EPA / play+0.189
+0.056Defense EPA / play-0.009
47.3%Offense success %47.5%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 9.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +250 | -310 |
| Our fair price | +296 | -296 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2 SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8 SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
M.Harrison62 rec · 885 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@ARIW10 2020 | BUF 30, ARI 32 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.0. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, BUF 30, ARI 32 in Week 10 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: ARI +0.011 against BUF +0.197.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
