Bills vs Cardinals – Week 10 2020
BUF
ARI
BUF
AWAY
30@32
ARI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 30, Arizona Cardinals 32.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 47% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 47%Our line: ARI +0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI +0.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
47%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.147Net EPA / play+0.031
+0.164 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.038 (14)
+0.017 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (11)
50.2% (2)Offense success %45.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 0.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@BUFW1 2024 | ARI 28, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 47% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 0.9. The market has ARI at -3.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, BUF 30, ARI 32. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 47% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 6.9 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Buffalo Bills, ARI 28, BUF 34 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against ARI +0.031.
