Bengals vs Steelers – Week 10 2020
CIN
PIT
CIN
AWAY
10@36
PIT BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 36.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Bengals.
Model confidence: PIT 74%Our line: PIT -8.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -8.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
43.6% (23)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 8.5. Actual: 26. Off by 17.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
21 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.5. The market has PIT at -6.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CIN 10, PIT 36. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 10, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 0.6 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CIN -0.141 against PIT +0.128.
