WAS @ DET – Week 10 2020
WAS
DET
WAS
AWAY
27@30
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 54%Our line: DET -1.3
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.3
OUR LINE
-116
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.023Net EPA / play-0.208
-0.067Offense EPA / play-0.005
-0.091Defense EPA / play+0.203
41.2%Offense success %44.3%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 1.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +123 | -136 |
| Our fair price | +116 | -116 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
Logan Thomas72 rec · 670 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@WASW10 2025 | DET 44, WAS 22 | DET | W |
| WAS@DETW2 2022 | WAS 27, DET 36 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 1.3. The market has DET at -2.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 44, WAS 22 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.023 against DET -0.208.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
