Commanders vs Lions – Week 10 2020
WAS
DET
WAS
AWAY
27@30
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, Detroit Lions 30.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 54%Our line: DET -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -1.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.023Net EPA / play-0.208
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.005 (22)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.203 (32)
41.2% (29)Offense success %44.3% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 1.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@WASW10 2025 | DET 44, WAS 22 | DET | W |
| WAS@DETW2 2022 | WAS 27, DET 36 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 1.3. The market has DET at -2.5.
Detroit Lions won, WAS 27, DET 30. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 44, WAS 22 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.023 against DET -0.208.
