2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ NE – Week 10 2020
BAL
NE
BAL
AWAY
17@23
NE +6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 63%Projected margin: -5.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but NE won. Projected margin was 5.8 -- the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -318 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
170.1SEASON PPR
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5SEASON PPR
James White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BALW16 2025 | NE 28, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
| BAL@NEW3 2022 | BAL 37, NE 26 | NE | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES