Ravens vs Patriots – Week 10 2020
BAL
NE
BAL
AWAY
17@23
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 17, New England Patriots 23.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 63%Our line: BAL -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.180Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
45.8% (16)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but NE won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BALW16 2025 | NE 28, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
| BAL@NEW3 2022 | BAL 37, NE 26 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NE
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.5. The market has BAL at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, BAL 17, NE 23. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 10, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 3.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 28, BAL 24 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against NE -0.076.
