2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LV – Week 10 2020
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
12@37
LV +25
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 56%Projected margin: 1.8
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 25. Off by 23.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -188 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2SEASON PPR
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES