Broncos vs Raiders – Week 10 2020
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
12@37
LV BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 12, Las Vegas Raiders 37.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 56%Our line: LV -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.085
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
38.8% (32)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 25. Off by 22.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 2.1. The market has LV at -3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, DEN 12, LV 37. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 10, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 4.5 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Las Vegas Raiders: DEN -0.147 against LV -0.085.
