Chargers vs Dolphins – Week 10 2020
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
21@29
MIA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 21, Miami Dolphins 29.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
43.2% (24)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 8. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.8. The market has MIA at -1.0.
Miami Dolphins won, LAC 21, MIA 29. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -1.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: LAC +0.001 against MIA +0.048.
