LAC @ MIA – Week 10 2020
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
21@29
MIA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -4.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-176
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.027Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.026Defense EPA / play-0.041
43.2%Offense success %46.0%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 8. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +104 | -115 |
| Our fair price | +176 | -176 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.87
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
52%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Keenan Allen100 rec · 992 yd · 8 TD
Mike Williams48 rec · 756 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.8. The market has MIA at -1.0.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: LAC +0.001 against MIA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
