Colts vs Titans – Week 10 2020
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
34@17
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 34, Tennessee Titans 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 57%Our line: TEN -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.109Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
46.6% (10)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but IND won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.2. The market has TEN at +1.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 34, TEN 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +1.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against TEN +0.053.
