TEN @ IND – Week 6 2026
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
IND
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: IND 70%Projected margin: -5.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.072
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.004
37.4%Offense success %46.3%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
IND backed by epa edge at 70%.
EPA EDGE
IND generates 0.072 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
IND is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
IND has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
RED ZONE
IND converts 95% in the red zone vs 68% for TEN. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in IND's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds3,101
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@TENW15 2026 | — | IND | — |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts?
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 5.3. The market has IND at -3.5.
When do the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts game?
Indianapolis Colts, 14-38 in Week 8 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the Indianapolis Colts?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN -0.260 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
