Titans vs Colts – Week 6 2026
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Colts over the Titans at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has the Colts at -7.0, and our model is 1.3 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 73%Our line: IND -8.3
80% range around our line: TEN by 9 to IND by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the IND game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -8.3
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.228Net EPA / play-0.150
-0.149 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.051 (22)
+0.078 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.099 (27)
40.5% (25)Offense success %42.2% (19)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors IND (A-tier, 73% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
IND is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 28% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
IND has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
RED ZONE
IND converts 78% in the red zone vs 45% for TEN. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
IND scores 1.4 points per drive vs 0.9 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in IND's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 8.3. The market has IND at -7.0.
Our model favors Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -7.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 7.0 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Tennessee Titans are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.9 above the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, TEN 14, IND 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN -0.228 against IND -0.150.
