NYJ @ NE – Week 6 2026
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 85%Projected margin: -13.2
NE
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
-13.2
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.158
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.047
40.7%Offense success %48.4%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on NE at 85% confidence.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
HIGH CONVICTION
NE is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
NE has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
NE converts 84% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds4,394
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW16 2026 | — | NE | — |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Who is favored in New York Jets at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 13.2. The market has NE at -9.5.
When do the New York Jets and New England Patriots play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs New England Patriots game?
New England Patriots, 42-10 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NYJ -0.274 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
