Jets vs Patriots – Week 6 2026
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Jets at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick.
The market has the Patriots at -7.5, and our model is 4.2 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 81%Our line: NE -11.7
80% range around our line: NYJ by 6 to NE by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.037Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
42.8% (16)Offense success %45.4% (13)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on NE at 81% confidence.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
4 OUT
NYJ is missing 4 players including Joseph Ossai (DE), Dylan Parham (G), Breece Hall (RB). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
NE is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
NE has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
NE converts 64% in the red zone vs 40% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 11.7. The market has NE at -7.5.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the New York Jets are without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.4 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 42, NYJ 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: NYJ +0.037 against NE +0.055.
