NYJ @ NE – Week 18 2023
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
17@3
NYJ BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.6
NE
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-173
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.252Offense EPA / play-0.191
-0.119Defense EPA / play-0.055
35.0%Offense success %38.9%
37.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NYJ won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 18.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -142 |
| Our fair price | +173 | -173 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
14 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5 SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall994 yd · 5 TD
Dalvin Cook214 yd · 0 TD
Zach Wilson211 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
Tyler Conklin61 rec · 621 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NE@NYJW3 2023 | NE 15, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.6. The market has NE at -2.5.
The model projects 43.8 combined points. The market total is 28.5.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 42, NYJ 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.133 against NE -0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
