Jets vs Patriots – Week 18 2023
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
17@3
NYJ BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 3.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
35.0% (32)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NYJ won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 18.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
14 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.6. The market has NE at -2.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 17, NE 3. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 28.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 15.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.133 against NE -0.136.
