MIN @ DET – Week 18 2023
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
20@30
DET BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 75%Our line: DET -9.0
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.0
OUR LINE
-296
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.041Offense EPA / play+0.064
-0.018Defense EPA / play-0.029
42.4%Offense success %46.1%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 9.0. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 |
| Our fair price | +296 | -296 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3 SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
202.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson68 rec · 1074 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson95 rec · 960 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW16 2023 | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 9.0. The market has DET at -3.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: MIN -0.023 against DET +0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
