Buccaneers vs Panthers – Week 18 2023
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
9@0
TB BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9, Carolina Panthers 0.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 3 Panthers.
Model confidence: TB 69%Our line: TB -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
39.6% (27)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 6.5. Actual: 9 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.5. The market has TB at -5.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 9, CAR 0. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -5.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 18, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 8.7 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against CAR -0.200.
