2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ SF – Week 18 2023
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
21@20
LA +1
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 71%Projected margin: 5.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but LA won. Projected margin was 5.5 -- the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| SF@LAW2 2023 | SF 30, LA 23 | SF | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES