49ers vs Rams – Week 5 2025
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
26@23
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 26, Los Angeles Rams 23.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 2 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 72%Our line: LA -8.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -8.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.206
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
48.3% (4)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 8.0, the model overestimated by 11.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 8.0. The market has LA at -8.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 26, LA 23. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -8.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: SF +0.018 against LA +0.206.
