Commanders vs Chargers – Week 5 2025
WAS
LAC
WAS
AWAY
27@10
WAS BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, Los Angeles Chargers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 63%Our line: LAC -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.137Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
45.6% (10)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but WAS won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 21.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@WASW1 2021 | LAC 20, WAS 16 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.5. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 27, LAC 10. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.6 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 20, WAS 16 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: WAS -0.137 against LAC +0.059.
