2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ LAC – Week 5 2025
WAS
LAC
WAS
AWAY
27@10
WAS +17
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 63%Projected margin: 2.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.4 -- the model overestimated by 19.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@WASW1 2021 | LAC 20, WAS 16 | WAS | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES