LAC @ WAS – Week 1 2021
LAC
WAS
LAC
AWAY
20@16
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 49%Our line: WAS +0.2
WAS
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.2
OUR LINE
+103
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.095Offense EPA / play-0.057
+0.033Defense EPA / play+0.067
47.6%Offense success %43.9%
46.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +117 | -129 |
| Our fair price | -103 | +103 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
49%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert5014 yd · 38 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler911 yd · 12 TD
Justin Jackson364 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Williams76 rec · 1146 yd · 9 TD
Keenan Allen106 rec · 1138 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@LACW5 2025 | WAS 27, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.2. The market has WAS at -2.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 27, LAC 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against WAS -0.124.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
