Chargers vs Commanders – Week 1 2021
LAC
WAS
LAC
AWAY
20@16
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Washington Commanders 16.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: WAS 49%Our line: WAS +0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS +0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
| SOURCE | LAC | WAS | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +117 | -129 | 55.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
47.6% (6)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@LACW5 2025 | WAS 27, LAC 10 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.2. The market has WAS at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 20, WAS 16. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -2.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 27, LAC 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against WAS -0.124.
