2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ TB – Week 1 2021
DAL
TB
DAL
AWAY
29@31
TB +2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 63%Projected margin: 7.9
TB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
7.9
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 2. Off by 5.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -425 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
232.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES