DAL @ TB – Week 1 2021
DAL
TB
DAL
AWAY
29@31
TB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 63%Our line: TB -4.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-171
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.217
+0.096Offense EPA / play+0.137
-0.091Defense EPA / play-0.080
47.0%Offense success %49.4%
40.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 4.5. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +351 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +171 | -171 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6 SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1 SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
232.8 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott4449 yd · 37 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott1002 yd · 10 TD
Tony Pollard719 yd · 2 TD
Dak Prescott146 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb79 rec · 1102 yd · 6 TD
Amari Cooper68 rec · 865 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 4.5. The market has TB at -10.0.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, TB 24, DAL 26 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DAL +0.187 against TB +0.217.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
