Cowboys vs Buccaneers – Week 1 2021
DAL
TB
DAL
AWAY
29@31
TB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 29, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 63%Our line: TB -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
79%
DIFFERENCE
-16%
| SOURCE | DAL | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +351 | -425 | 79.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.217
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
47.0% (7)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 4.5. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW5 2026 | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL | L |
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 4.5. The market has TB at -10.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, DAL 29, TB 31. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 24, DAL 16 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DAL +0.187 against TB +0.217.
