2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ LV – Week 1 2021
BAL
LV
BAL
AWAY
27@33
LV +6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 66%Projected margin: -4.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 4.5 -- the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -167 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@BALW2 2024 | LV 26, BAL 23 | BAL | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES