Ravens vs Raiders – Week 1 2021
BAL
LV
BAL
AWAY
27@33
LV BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 27, Las Vegas Raiders 33.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: BAL 66%Our line: BAL -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SOURCE | BAL | LV | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -167 | +149 | 61.2% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
46.4% (10)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@BALW2 2024 | LV 26, BAL 23 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs LV
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.5. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, BAL 27, LV 33. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, BAL 23 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: BAL -0.065 against LV -0.064.
