BAL @ LV – Week 1 2021
BAL
LV
BAL
AWAY
27@33
LV BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 66%Our line: BAL -5.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.019
+0.070Defense EPA / play+0.045
46.4%Offense success %44.9%
42.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -167 | +149 |
| Our fair price | -193 | +193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1 SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson2882 yd · 16 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson767 yd · 2 TD
Devonta Freeman576 yd · 5 TD
Latavius Murray501 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
Mark Andrews107 rec · 1361 yd · 9 TD
Marquise Brown91 rec · 1008 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@BALW2 2024 | LV 26, BAL 23 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.5. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, BAL 23 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: BAL -0.065 against LV -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
