Bears vs Rams – Week 1 2021
CHI
LA
CHI
AWAY
14@34
LA BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 14, Los Angeles Rams 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 59%Our line: LA -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
LA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
78%
DIFFERENCE
-19%
| SOURCE | CHI | LA | LA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +324 | -387 | 77.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.102
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
41.2% (26)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 20. Off by 17.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@CHIW4 2024 | LA 18, CHI 24 | LA | L |
| CHI@LAW7 2020 | CHI 10, LA 24 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 3.0. The market has LA at -9.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, CHI 14, LA 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -9.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 1, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Chicago Bears, LA 18, CHI 24 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: CHI -0.127 against LA +0.102.
