CHI @ LA – Week 1 2021
CHI
LA
CHI
AWAY
14@34
LA BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 59%Our line: LA -3.0
LA
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.102
-0.100Offense EPA / play+0.077
+0.026Defense EPA / play-0.025
41.2%Offense success %46.4%
44.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 20. Off by 17.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +324 | -387 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields1870 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery849 yd · 7 TD
Khalil Herbert433 yd · 2 TD
Justin Fields420 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Darnell Mooney81 rec · 1055 yd · 4 TD
Cole Kmet60 rec · 612 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@CHIW4 2024 | LA 18, CHI 24 | LA | L |
| CHI@LAW7 2020 | CHI 10, LA 24 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 3.0. The market has LA at -9.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Chicago Bears, LA 18, CHI 24 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: CHI -0.127 against LA +0.102.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
