MIA @ NE – Week 1 2021
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
17@16
MIA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 53%Our line: MIA -1.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.1
OUR LINE
-114
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.135
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.069
-0.028Defense EPA / play-0.066
41.3%Offense success %48.4%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 1.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +155 | -173 |
| Our fair price | -114 | +114 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jaylen Waddle104 rec · 1015 yd · 6 TD
Mike Gesicki73 rec · 780 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 1.1. The market has MIA at +3.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: MIA -0.031 against NE +0.135.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
