Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 1 2021
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
17@16
MIA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, New England Patriots 16.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: MIA 53%Our line: MIA -1.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -1.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
MIA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
38%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
| SOURCE | MIA | NE | MIA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +155 | -173 | 37.9% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.135
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
41.3% (25)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 1.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 1.1. The market has MIA at +3.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 17, NE 16. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +3.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: MIA -0.031 against NE +0.135.
