2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ IND – Week 1 2021
SEA
IND
SEA
AWAY
28@16
SEA +12
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 51%Projected margin: 1.4
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but SEA won. Projected margin was 1.4 -- the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -146 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DK Metcalf
WR
244.3SEASON PPR
Russell Wilson
QB
242.8SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
241.4SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@SEAW15 2025 | IND 16, SEA 18 | SEA | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES