Seahawks vs Colts – Week 1 2021
SEA
IND
SEA
AWAY
28@16
SEA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 28, Indianapolis Colts 16.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 51%Our line: IND -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
IND · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
42%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | SEA | IND | IND WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -146 | +132 | 41.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.003Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.031 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
+0.028 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
43.2% (21)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 12.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@SEAW15 2025 | IND 16, SEA 18 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.2. The market has IND at +3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 28, IND 16. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, IND 16, SEA 18 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: SEA +0.003 against IND +0.045.
