Colts vs Seahawks – Week 15 2025
IND
SEA
IND
AWAY
16@18
SEA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 16, Seattle Seahawks 18.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 73%Our line: SEA -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.150
+0.072 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
+0.004 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
46.3% (8)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 2. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@INDW1 2021 | SEA 28, IND 16 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 8.2. The market has SEA at -13.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, IND 16, SEA 18. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -13.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 15, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 4.8 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 28, IND 16 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: IND +0.068 against SEA +0.150.
