IND @ SEA – Week 15 2025
IND
SEA
IND
AWAY
16@18
SEA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 73%Our line: SEA -8.2
SEA
PICK SIDE
-13.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.2
OUR LINE
-269
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.150
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.033
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.117
46.3%Offense success %46.3%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 2. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +650 | -1000 |
| Our fair price | +269 | -269 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -13.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.14
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3 SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@INDW1 2021 | SEA 28, IND 16 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 8.2. The market has SEA at -13.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 28, IND 16 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: IND +0.068 against SEA +0.150.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
