Falcons vs Buccaneers – Week 15 2025
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
29@28
ATL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 29, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 68%Our line: TB -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
43.7% (18)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.2, the model overestimated by 7.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.2. The market has TB at -6.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 29, TB 28. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 23, ATL 20 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.018 against TB -0.022.
