2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ TB – Week 15 2025
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
29@28
ATL +1
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 68%Projected margin: 4.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 5.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES