Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 1 2025
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
23@20
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Atlanta Falcons 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
51%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
| SOURCE | TB | ATL | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 | 51.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (24)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.004 (15)
42.4% (24)Offense success %43.7% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.5. The market has TB at -1.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 23, ATL 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -1.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: TB -0.022 against ATL -0.018.
