2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 1 2025
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
23@20
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 66%Projected margin: -3.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 3.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES