TB @ ATL – Week 1 2025
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
23@20
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.021
+0.013Defense EPA / play-0.004
42.4%Offense success %43.7%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -193 | +193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9 SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7 SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.5. The market has TB at -1.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: TB -0.022 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
