Raiders vs Patriots – Week 1 2025
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
20@13
LV BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 20, New England Patriots 13.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 50%Our line: NE +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
59%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
| SOURCE | LV | NE | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 | 58.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 7:59 PM ET.
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
37.6% (30)Offense success %48.4% (3)
45.0% (21)Defense success %44.6% (18)
-0.187 (29)Pass EPA / play+0.286 (1)
-0.261 (32)Rush EPA / play+0.008 (13)
14.2 (32)Points / game28.8 (2)
25.4 (25)Points allowed / game18.8 (4)
61.4%Pass rate54.1%
61.1%Red zone TD %84.2%
24.6%4th down go %24.5%
RaidersPatriots
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but LV won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NEXT GEN STATS
EXP COMP %
63.6%
Drake MayeNE
TIME TO THROW
2.79s
Geno SmithLV
SEPARATION
3.4 yds
Stefon DiggsNE
RUSH EFFICIENCY
6.4
Ashton JeantyLV
AGGRESSIVENESS
21.7%
Drake MayeNE
AVG YAC
11.0 yds
Brock BowersLV
GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE
SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS
LV ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
11.7%
DROP %
7.8%
PRESSURE %
22.0%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.0
YAC/ATT
1.5
BROKEN TACKLES
30
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
70.2%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
86.2
MISSED TACKLE %
10.6%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
NE ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
21.3%
DROP %
2.7%
PRESSURE %
17.0%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.4
YAC/ATT
1.5
BROKEN TACKLES
39
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
68.6%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
84.6
MISSED TACKLE %
7.5%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
LV SCHEME RATES
17 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
27.4%
BLITZ RATE
21.7%
MOTION
41.2%
RPO
3.3%
SCREEN
9.3%
NO HUDDLE
7.5%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.3
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
NE SCHEME RATES
21 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
27.1%
BLITZ RATE
32.4%
MOTION
40.3%
RPO
1.3%
SCREEN
5.9%
NO HUDDLE
2.6%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.4
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
NE win probability from kickoff to the final whistle, the game’s actual in-game trajectory, not our pregame pick. Source: nflfastR play-by-play
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW5 2026 | LV 17, NE 45 | NE | W |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.0. The market has NE at -2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 20, NE 13. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, LV 17, NE 45 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: LV -0.240 against NE +0.205.