LV @ NE – Week 1 2025
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
20@13
LV BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: NE 50%Our line: NE +0.0
NE
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.158
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.047
37.6%Offense success %48.4%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but LV won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1 SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2 SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.0. The market has NE at -2.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, NE 17, LV 21 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: LV -0.240 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
