2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ NE – Week 1 2025
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
20@13
LV +7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 50%Projected margin: -0.6
NE
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but LV won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
No noteworthy trends
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES