2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ CLE – Week 1 2025
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
17@16
CIN +1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 76%Projected margin: -7.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 1. Off by 6.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES