Bengals vs Browns – Week 1 2025
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
17@16
CIN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 17, Cleveland Browns 16.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns.
Model confidence: CIN 76%Our line: CIN -9.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -9.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
76%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
| SOURCE | CIN | CLE | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -238 |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
45.5% (11)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 1. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 9.6. The market has CIN at -5.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 17, CLE 16. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -5.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 1, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CIN -0.138 against CLE -0.094.
