CIN @ CLE – Week 1 2025
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
17@16
CIN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 76%Our line: CIN -9.6
CIN
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.6
OUR LINE
-318
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.130Defense EPA / play-0.096
45.5%Offense success %34.5%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 1. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -238 | +195 |
| Our fair price | -318 | +318 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 9.6. The market has CIN at -5.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CIN -0.138 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
