Steelers vs Jets – Week 1 2025
PIT
NYJ
PIT
AWAY
34@32
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 34, New York Jets 32.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: PIT 62%Our line: PIT -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
59%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | PIT | NYJ | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 | 58.7% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
44.0% (17)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.1. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@PITW7 2024 | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW4 2022 | NYJ 24, PIT 20 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NYJ
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.1. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 34, NYJ 32. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, NYJ 15, PIT 37 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against NYJ -0.274.
