PIT @ NYJ – Week 1 2025
PIT
NYJ
PIT
AWAY
34@32
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 62%Our line: PIT -4.1
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-163
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.025Offense EPA / play-0.127
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.147
44.0%Offense success %40.7%
43.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.1. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | -163 | +163 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1 SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3 SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@PITW7 2024 | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW4 2022 | NYJ 24, PIT 20 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.1. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, NYJ 15, PIT 37 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
