MIA @ IND – Week 1 2025
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
8@33
IND BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.072
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.004
41.9%Offense success %46.3%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 25. Off by 21.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -108 | -112 |
| Our fair price | +154 | -154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8 SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1 SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.7. The market has IND at -1.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 10, IND 16 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIA -0.105 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
