Dolphins vs Colts – Week 1 2025
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
8@33
IND BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 8, Indianapolis Colts 33.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
IND · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
50%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SOURCE | MIA | IND | IND WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -108 | -112 | 50.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
41.9% (27)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 25. Off by 21.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.7. The market has IND at -1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, MIA 8, IND 33. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -1.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 10, IND 16 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIA -0.105 against IND +0.068.
