2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ IND – Week 1 2025
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
8@33
IND +25
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 61%Projected margin: 2.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 25. Off by 23.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES