NFL WEEK 1 2025 PREDICTIONS & PICKS
16 GAMESUPDATED JUL 4, 2026
THE SHORT ANSWER
NoPunt went 11-5 straight up in Week 1 2025.
The most confident pick, the Denver Broncos at 78%, won 20-12.
Our most confident Week 1 pick is the Denver Broncos over the Tennessee Titans, at 78% win probability.
1 of 16 games on the Week 1 slate is effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.
Before kickoff
Get every week's picks by email, free
Wednesday: our pick and win probability for every game, before kickoff. Tuesday: how they did, wins and losses. Unsubscribe anytime.
WHAT WE GOT WRONG
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Detroit Lions at 64% win probability lost 13-27.
The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 1-3 (25%) against a 59% all-time rate.
PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.
FILTER
QUESTIONS
Our safest Week 1 2025 pick is the Denver Broncos over the Tennessee Titans, at 78% win probability.
1 of 16 games in Week 1 2025 are effective coin flips on our model, under 55% win probability.
NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 1, 2025, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.
NoPunt went 11-5 straight up in Week 1 2025.
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Detroit Lions at 64% win probability lost 13-27. The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 1-3 (25%) against a 59% all-time rate.