2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ DEN – Week 1 2025
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
12@20
DEN +8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER S
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 78%Projected margin: 10.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
10.1
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 10.1. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.29 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
| TEN@DENW1 2020 | TEN 16, DEN 14 | TEN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES