TEN @ DEN – Week 1 2025
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
12@20
DEN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 78%Our line: DEN -10.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.7
OUR LINE
-365
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.050
+0.100Defense EPA / play-0.088
37.4%Offense success %44.2%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 10.7. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 | -455 |
| Our fair price | +365 | -365 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7 SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8 SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
| TEN@DENW1 2020 | TEN 16, DEN 14 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DEN by 10.7. The market has DEN at -8.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tennessee Titans, DEN 10, TEN 17 in Week 10 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: TEN -0.260 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
