Titans vs Broncos – Week 1 2025
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
12@20
DEN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 12, Denver Broncos 20.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Titans, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 78%Our line: DEN -10.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -10.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
78%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
80%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
| SOURCE | TEN | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.160 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
+0.100 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
37.4% (31)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 10.7. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
| TEN@DENW1 2020 | TEN 16, DEN 14 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DEN by 10.7. The market has DEN at -8.5.
Denver Broncos won, TEN 12, DEN 20. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -8.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 1, the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tennessee Titans, DEN 10, TEN 17 in Week 10 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: TEN -0.260 against DEN +0.138.
