2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ DEN – Week 1 2020
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
16@14
TEN +2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 51%Projected margin: 1.2
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 2. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5SEASON PPR
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DENW1 2025 | TEN 12, DEN 20 | DEN | W |
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES