TEN @ DEN – Week 1 2020
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
16@14
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 51%Our line: TEN -0.2
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.171Offense EPA / play-0.104
+0.117Defense EPA / play+0.043
50.1%Offense success %38.8%
47.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 0.2. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +157 |
| Our fair price | -102 | +102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4 SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry2027 yd · 17 TD
Ryan Tannehill266 yd · 7 TD
Jeremy McNichols204 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown70 rec · 1075 yd · 11 TD
Corey Davis65 rec · 984 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DENW1 2025 | TEN 12, DEN 20 | DEN | W |
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.2. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, MON 10:10 PM.
Denver Broncos, TEN 12, DEN 20 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.053 against DEN -0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
