Titans vs Broncos – Week 1 2020
TEN
DEN
TEN
AWAY
16@14
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 16, Denver Broncos 14.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Titans, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: TEN 51%Our line: TEN -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
| SOURCE | TEN | DEN | TEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +157 | 62.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.171 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
+0.117 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
50.1% (3)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 0.2. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DENW1 2025 | TEN 12, DEN 20 | DEN | W |
| DEN@TENW10 2022 | DEN 10, TEN 17 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.2. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 16, DEN 14. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, MON 10:10 PM.
Denver Broncos, TEN 12, DEN 20 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.053 against DEN -0.147.
