Jets vs Bills – Week 1 2020
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
17@27
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 17, Buffalo Bills 27.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 55%Our line: BUF -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -1.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
72%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
| SOURCE | NYJ | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +242 | -279 | 72.2% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.143 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
+0.084 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
40.2% (31)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 10. Off by 8.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 1.5. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Buffalo Bills won, NYJ 17, BUF 27. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 1, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.227 against BUF +0.147.
