NYJ @ BUF – Week 1 2020
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
17@27
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 55%Our line: BUF -1.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.5
OUR LINE
-120
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.143Offense EPA / play+0.164
+0.084Defense EPA / play+0.017
40.2%Offense success %50.2%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 10. Off by 8.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +242 | -279 |
| Our fair price | +120 | -120 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
Jamison Crowder
WR
172.0 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
134.0 SEASON PPR
Frank Gore
RB
100.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
Breshad Perriman30 rec · 505 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 1.5. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.227 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
