PHI @ WAS – Week 1 2020
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
17@27
WAS BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 61%Our line: PHI -3.9
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-158
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.089Offense EPA / play-0.067
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.091
40.6%Offense success %41.2%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 13.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -227 | +200 |
| Our fair price | -158 | +158 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Miles Sanders867 yd · 6 TD
Boston Scott374 yd · 1 TD
Jalen Hurts354 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
Dallas Goedert46 rec · 524 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.9. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 24, PHI 17 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: PHI -0.107 against WAS +0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
