Eagles vs Commanders – Week 1 2020
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
17@27
WAS BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Washington Commanders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Eagles, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: PHI 61%Our line: PHI -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | PHI | WAS | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -227 | +200 | 68.0% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.089 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
+0.018 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
40.6% (30)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 13.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs WAS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.9. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Washington Commanders won, PHI 17, WAS 27. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 1, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: PHI -0.107 against WAS +0.023.
