Browns vs Ravens – Week 1 2020
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
6@38
BAL BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 6, Baltimore Ravens 38.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 73%Our line: BAL -8.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -8.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
74%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | CLE | BAL | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +260 | -302 | 73.7% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
46.6% (9)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.4. Actual: 32. Off by 23.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.4. The market has BAL at -7.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, CLE 6, BAL 38. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 1, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE +0.011 against BAL +0.180.
