CLE @ BAL – Week 1 2020
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
6@38
BAL BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 73%Our line: BAL -8.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.4
OUR LINE
-275
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.088Offense EPA / play+0.120
+0.077Defense EPA / play-0.060
46.6%Offense success %45.8%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.4. Actual: 32. Off by 23.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +260 | -302 |
| Our fair price | +275 | -275 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CLE
Baker Mayfield
QB
248.6 SEASON PPR
Kareem Hunt
RB
218.5 SEASON PPR
Nick Chubb
RB
207.7 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Baker Mayfield3563 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1067 yd · 12 TD
Kareem Hunt841 yd · 6 TD
D'Ernest Johnson166 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jarvis Landry72 rec · 840 yd · 3 TD
Rashard Higgins37 rec · 599 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.4. The market has BAL at -7.0.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, CLE 16 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: CLE +0.011 against BAL +0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
