Buccaneers vs Saints – Week 1 2020
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
23@34
NO BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, New Orleans Saints 34.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
| SOURCE | TB | NO | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +174 | -196 | 64.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.170Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
45.9% (15)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 11. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 4.6. The market has NO at -4.0.
New Orleans Saints won, TB 23, NO 34. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -4.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: TB +0.170 against NO +0.177.
