2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NO – Week 1 2020
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
23@34
NO +11
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 63%Projected margin: 7.4
NO
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 11. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -196 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
377.8SEASON PPR
Drew Brees
QB
209.5SEASON PPR
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES