LAC @ CIN – Week 1 2020
LAC
CIN
LAC
AWAY
16@13
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 51%Our line: LAC -0.2
LAC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.027Offense EPA / play-0.049
+0.026Defense EPA / play+0.092
43.2%Offense success %43.6%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 0.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -129 | +117 |
| Our fair price | -102 | +102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Keenan Allen100 rec · 992 yd · 8 TD
Mike Williams48 rec · 756 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LACW11 2024 | CIN 27, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CINW13 2021 | LAC 41, CIN 22 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.2. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, CIN 27, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against CIN -0.141.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
