Chargers vs Bengals – Week 1 2020
LAC
CIN
LAC
AWAY
16@13
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Cincinnati Bengals 13.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: LAC 51%Our line: LAC -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SOURCE | LAC | CIN | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -129 | +117 | 55.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
43.2% (24)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 0.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LACW11 2024 | CIN 27, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CINW13 2021 | LAC 41, CIN 22 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CIN
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.2. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 16, CIN 13. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, CIN 27, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against CIN -0.141.
