LAC @ CIN – Week 13 2021
LAC
CIN
LAC
AWAY
41@22
LAC BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 55%Our line: CIN -1.7
CIN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.7
OUR LINE
-123
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.095Offense EPA / play+0.057
+0.033Defense EPA / play-0.012
47.6%Offense success %44.2%
46.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but LAC won. Projected margin was 1.7, the model overestimated by 20.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +127 | -141 |
| Our fair price | +123 | -123 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert5014 yd · 38 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler911 yd · 12 TD
Justin Jackson364 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Williams76 rec · 1146 yd · 9 TD
Keenan Allen106 rec · 1138 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LACW11 2024 | CIN 27, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CINW1 2020 | LAC 16, CIN 13 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 1.7. The market has CIN at -2.5.
The model projects 49.0 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, CIN 27, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: LAC +0.061 against CIN +0.069.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
