Chargers vs Bengals – Week 13 2021
LAC
CIN
LAC
AWAY
41@22
LAC BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 41, Cincinnati Bengals 22.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 55%Our line: CIN -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -1.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
47.6% (6)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but LAC won. Projected margin was 1.7, the model overestimated by 20.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LACW11 2024 | CIN 27, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CINW1 2020 | LAC 16, CIN 13 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 1.7. The market has CIN at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 41, CIN 22. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -2.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 0.5 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, CIN 27, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: LAC +0.061 against CIN +0.069.
