DAL @ NO – Week 13 2021
DAL
NO
DAL
AWAY
27@17
DAL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 50%Our line: NO 0.0
NO
PICK SIDE
+6.0
MARKET SPREAD
0.0
OUR LINE
-100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.096Offense EPA / play-0.074
-0.091Defense EPA / play-0.109
47.0%Offense success %40.6%
40.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -254 | +222 |
| Our fair price | -100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO +6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
30%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6 SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1 SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
232.8 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott4449 yd · 37 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott1002 yd · 10 TD
Tony Pollard719 yd · 2 TD
Dak Prescott146 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb79 rec · 1102 yd · 6 TD
Amari Cooper68 rec · 865 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DALW2 2024 | NO 44, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project a dead-even game. The market has NO at +6.0.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 44, DAL 19 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against NO +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
