Cowboys vs Saints – Week 13 2021
DAL
NO
DAL
AWAY
27@17
DAL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 27, New Orleans Saints 17.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 50%Our line: NO 0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO 0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (24)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.109 (2)
47.0% (7)Offense success %40.6% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DALW2 2024 | NO 44, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project a dead-even game. The market has NO at +6.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 27, NO 17. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +6.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 13, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 0.9 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 44, DAL 19 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against NO +0.035.
