2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ NO – Week 13 2021
DAL
NO
DAL
AWAY
27@17
DAL +10
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 50%Projected margin: -0.4
NO
PICK SIDE
+6.0
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
+237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -254 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
232.8SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DALW2 2024 | NO 44, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES