2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ PIT – Week 13 2021
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
19@20
PIT +1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: -5.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 5.6 -- the model overestimated by 6.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -195 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES