Ravens vs Steelers – Week 13 2021
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
19@20
PIT BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 19, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
46.4% (10)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.7. The market has BAL at -4.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, BAL 19, PIT 20. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -4.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 13, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.8 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL -0.065 against PIT -0.090.
