2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 13 2021
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
9@22
KC +13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 62%Projected margin: 5.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 13. Off by 7.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
HIGH WIND
22 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -387 | Won · +$0.29 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
22 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES