Vikings vs Lions – Week 13 2021
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
27@29
DET BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 27, Detroit Lions 29.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: MIN 67%Our line: MIN -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
41.4% (24)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DET won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 67% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.0. The market has MIN at -7.0.
Detroit Lions won, MIN 27, DET 29. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -7.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 13, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 1.5 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.035 against DET -0.161.
