MIN @ DET – Week 13 2021
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
27@29
DET BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 67%Our line: MIN -6.0
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-204
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.017Offense EPA / play-0.063
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.098
41.4%Offense success %42.0%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DET won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -296 | +255 |
| Our fair price | -204 | +204 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4221 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1159 yd · 6 TD
Alexander Mattison491 yd · 3 TD
Kirk Cousins115 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson108 rec · 1616 yd · 10 TD
Adam Thielen67 rec · 726 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 67% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.0. The market has MIN at -7.0.
The model projects 49.0 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.035 against DET -0.161.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
