2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ DET – Week 13 2021
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
27@29
DET +2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 67%Projected margin: -6.6
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-6.6
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DET won. Projected margin was 6.6 -- the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -296 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
No noteworthy trends
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES