2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ HOU – Week 13 2021
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
31@0
IND +31
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 71%Projected margin: -8.6
IND
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-8.6
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 31. Off by 22.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -408 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES