WAS @ LV – Week 13 2021
WAS
LV
WAS
AWAY
17@15
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 52%Our line: WAS -0.7
WAS
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-108
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.124Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.019
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.045
43.9%Offense success %44.9%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 0.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +116 | -128 |
| Our fair price | -108 | +108 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.15
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
J.D. McKissic43 rec · 397 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@WASW3 2025 | LV 24, WAS 41 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.7. The market has WAS at +1.0.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, LV 24, WAS 41 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: WAS -0.124 against LV -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
