Commanders vs Raiders – Week 13 2021
WAS
LV
WAS
AWAY
17@15
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 17, Las Vegas Raiders 15.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: WAS 52%Our line: WAS -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -0.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.124Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
43.9% (20)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 0.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@WASW3 2025 | LV 24, WAS 41 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs LV
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.7. The market has WAS at +1.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 17, LV 15. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at +1.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 13, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 0.8 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, LV 24, WAS 41 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: WAS -0.124 against LV -0.064.
