Raiders vs Commanders – Week 3 2025
LV
WAS
LV
AWAY
24@41
WAS BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 24, Washington Commanders 41.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 67%Our line: WAS -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.240Net EPA / play-0.137
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (18)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.142 (30)
37.6% (30)Offense success %45.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@LVW13 2021 | WAS 17, LV 15 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 6.0. The market has WAS at -2.5.
Washington Commanders won, LV 24, WAS 41. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -2.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 17, LV 15 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Washington Commanders: LV -0.240 against WAS -0.137.
