Jets vs Buccaneers – Week 3 2025
NYJ
TB
NYJ
AWAY
27@29
TB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 80%Our line: TB -11.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -11.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
40.7% (29)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 2. Off by 9.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NYJW17 2021 | TB 28, NYJ 24 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TB by 11.4. The market has TB at -6.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, NYJ 27, TB 29. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 28, NYJ 24 in Week 17 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NYJ -0.274 against TB -0.022.
