2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ TB – Week 3 2025
NYJ
TB
NYJ
AWAY
27@29
TB +2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER S
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 80%Projected margin: 10.9
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
10.9
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 10.9. Actual: 2. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NYJW17 2021 | TB 28, NYJ 24 | TB | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES